Dance of Democracy

According to 2019 Lok Sabha Election figures, the total number of voters in Mumbai South was 15.54 lakh, divided across six assembly constituencies: Worli (2.67 lakh), Shivadi (2.74 lakh), Byculla (2.43 lakh), Malabar Hill (2.60 lakh), Mumbadevi (2.42 lakh), and Colaba (2.65 lakh). The last 2019 elections had a 51.59% turnout, totaling 8.01 lakh votes. 

Arvind Sawant of the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance won the election with 4.21 lakh votes, while his opponent Milind Deora of the Congress received 3.21 lakh votes, by a margin of victory of 1 lakh votes. Arvind Sawant received 27.15% of the total votes and 52.62% of the actual voting, while Milind Deora received 20.71% and 40.14%, respectively.

Our neighbourhood on both the Hills held the voting process with around 112 polling booths and 27 polling stations located in different places. The Mumbai South Lok Sabha had a total of 1578 polling stations accross all 6 assemblies. 17 nominations were received out of which there were 13 contestants. 11 contestant’s deposit was forfeited for not receiving minimum votes as required.

The BJP and Shiv Sena fought together in the last election, but their alliance won’t be there this time, and each will go their separate ways. After the last Assembly elections, the alliance broke apart, and later the Shiv Sena party separated into two factions: Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray (UBT) Shiv Sena and what other is known as the Shinde faction of the party. According to the legal proceedings, the Shinde faction has received the original Shiv Sena party organisation and symbol. For the upcoming Lok Sabha election, the Shiv Sena UBT faction has nominated sitting MP Shri Arvind Sawant. The BJP and their coalition partner Shinde faction of Shiv Sena are yet to select their candidate. 

It would be interesting to see how electoral statistics change following the formation of new alliances. Elections and results statistics, like any other field, have supporters and enthusiasts. Kishor Chalke, the owner of Chalke Stores on Pedder Road, has been closely watching election results for over 30 years and was happy to provide us with figures.

After speaking with many people who closely watch elections and reviewing the following assembly wise statistics from the previous elections, you will see why this election has become so interesting: 

Worli Assembly: 

Total Votes Polled 1,36,031.

Sawant 78,653 (57.81%), Deora 42,499 (31.24%). Sawant lead this assembly constituency by 36,154 votes. 

Shivadi Assembly: 

Total Votes Polled 1,40,469.

Sawant 91,497 (65.13%), Deora 41,645 (29.64%). 

Sawant lead this assembly constituency by 49,852 votes.

Byculla Assembly: 

Total Votes Polled 1,30,981.

Sawant 47,627 (36.36%), Deora 76,302 (58.25%). 

Deora lead this assembly constituency by 28,675 votes.

Malabar Hill Assembly: 

Total Votes Polled 1,43,240

Sawant 99,269 (69.3%), Deora 40,700 (28.41%). 

Sawant lead this assembly constituency by 58,569 votes.

Mumbadevi Assembly: 

Total Votes Polled 1,15,976.

Sawant 38,969 (33.6%), Deora 73,838 (63.66%). 

Deora lead this assembly constituency by 34,869 votes.

Colaba Assembly: 

Total Votes Polled 1,17,733.

Sawant 64,515 (54.79%), Deora 46,378 (39.39%). 

Sawant lead this assembly constituency by 18,137 votes.

Our neighbourhood, Malabar Hill constituency, delivered the BJP-SS alliance the largest lead among the six assembly, of over 58 thousand votes.

The numbers above show that Sawant led in four assembly constituencies: Colaba, Malabar Hill, Shivadi, and Worli. Deora took the lead in two constituencies: Byculla and Mumbadevi.

Will the results remain the same after the alliance partners have changed? Will the four constituencies where Sawant took the lead vote for him again? Also, now that the Congress and Shiv Sena UBT have formed an alliance, will Congress voters in Byculla and Mumbadevi vote for Sawant?

Shiv Sena was one party in the last elections, and they were in an alliance with the BJP, therefore the results included both BJP and Shiv Sena supporters; however, the partnership has since broken and now the Shiv Sena party has been divided into two sections. Also, would Sawant’s strong leads in assembly constituencies continue, or will the patterns shift with the change in alliance?

It is difficult to predict what people will think because voting is done secretly. That is why elections are referred to as the dance of democracy due to unexpected outcomes that are possible.

We found some other interesting information on the Election Commission of India’s website and thought we’d share them with our readers. They call our country India the largest democracy in the world, and here is why.

The Lok Sabha elections in 2019 were held for 542 seats, 411 of which were general constituencies. There were 84 seats reserved for SC and 47 for ST communities.

Our country has 91.05 crore voters, of whom 47.26 crore were male voters, 43.78 crore were female voters, and 38,970 were third-gender votes. 

The actual votes polled were: male 31.67 crores (67.01%), female 29.41 crores (67.18%), and 5682 third-gender votes (14.58%). Total: 61.08 crores (61.09%).

The voting procedure was conducted in 10,36,295 polling stations, with an average of 879 voters per station.

The total number of contenders for 542 constituencies was 8026, with 7296 men, 724 females, and 6 third genders. Out of the 542 elected, 464 were men and 78 were women. Deposits for 6897 participants were forfeited. The average number of contestants per constituency was 15. One constituency had three contestants whereas another  had as many as 185. 

We must sincerely admire and appreciate the Election Commission of India’s efforts to organise such a large-scale democratic voting process. It requires enormous effort, organisation, and ground-level personnel to conduct such a large election as the one indicated above.

(Editorial Committee of ‘The Voice of Malabar Hills’)